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Friday, March 22, 2019

Making Sense of Some Big Numbers

Choose produced-energy in terawatt-hours-per-year, as the consistent units of national and global Renewable Energy Progress.

And, often find confusion and error in reports lacking tests of this consistency.

At 3/21/2019, says U.S. Energy Information Administration : 

U.S nuclear electricity generation

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review and Electric Power Monthly

Electricity generation from U.S. nuclear power plants totaled 807.1 million megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2018, slightly more than the previous peak of 807.0 million MWh in 2010, based on preliminary annual data. Although several nuclear power plants have closed since 2010, a combination of added capacity through uprates and shorter refueling and maintenance cycles allowed the remaining nuclear power plants to produce more electricity. In the near future, however, EIA expects that U.S. nuclear power output will decline.

Says Wikipedia:
Solar power in the United States


Solar power in the United States includes utility-scale solar power plants as well as local distributed generation, mostly from rooftop photovoltaics. As of the end of 2017, the United States had over 50 gigawatts (GW) of installed photovoltaic capacity. [1] In the twelve months through December 2018, utility scale solar power generated 66.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), 1.66% of total U.S. electricity. During the same time period total solar generation, including estimated small scale Generation photovoltaic generation, was 96.1 TWh, 2.30% of total U.S. electricity.[2] In terms of total cumulative installed capacity, by year end 2017 the United States ranked 2nd in the world behind China. In 2016, 39% of all new electricity generation capacity in the country came from solar, more than any other source and ahead of natural gas (29%).[3] By 2015, solar employment had overtaken oil and gas as well as coal employment in the United States.[4] In 2016, more than 260,000 Americans were employed in the solar industry.[5]



One terawatt is 1000 gigawatt, 1,000,000 megawatt, 1,000,000,000 kilowatt.
In 2018, 807.1 million megawatt-hours,  807 terawatt-hours, by nuclear power
In 2018, 96.1 terawatt-hours, by solar power

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/Capuano_02052018.pdf
USA 2017 Electricity use by end-use demand sector billion kilowatt hours
Residential 1400
Commercial 1400
Industrial 1050
Total 3850 billion kilowatt-hours, 3850 million megawatt-hours 3,850 terawatt-hours
We have an achievable goal, to increase solar capacity by about times fifty. 


ACEE Blog post, 3/21/2019:

From construction to retrofits, PACE financing is saving serious energy 
 Property assessed clean energy (PACE), a popular, long-term financing tool for energy and water conservation projects, has grown quickly in recent years across the United States.
The PACE market increased by 75% from 2016 to 2017, completing $251 million in funding by the end of 2017, according to PACENation, a private advocacy group. The impact is significant. Commercial PACE funding has cumulatively saved 6.3 billion kWh, which equals the electricity used by about 25,000 commercial office buildings each year.

63 billion kilowatt hours is 63 terawatt-hours, about the same as the 2018 achievement of solar power.


We must not allow our challenges to be obscured by inconsistent units of incomprehensible numbers.


At 3/25/2019, discover web site buildinggreen.com. Look for content on LED lighting, and find this.

High quality, low energy
The information offered in this report generally revolves around lighting design that provides building occupants with the highest-quality illumination possible—providing comfortable and safe environments in which to complete their tasks—while using as little energy as possible.


According to the Energy Information Administration, in 2010, lighting in U.S. commercial buildings required 297 billion kWh of electricity—about 22% of total commercial building electricity used in the nation. But technology has been rapidly evolving, and it’s becoming ever easier and more cost effective to drastically reduce the amount of energy consumed by lighting. In fact, LEDs have become so efficacious that additional gains in efficiency are small. The point has been reached where many in the lighting industry, who now see energy efficiency as a given, are turning most of their attention to the human-health component of sustainability and the ways that quality lighting can support it.

297 billion kwh is 297 terawatt hours. Divide by 0.22 to find claimed 1,350 terawatt hours total commercial buildings usage of electricity in 2010.


We can develop wind and solar power capacity that eliminates need for any dangerous nuclear power. We must. 


At 3/31/2019, Google this question:
How many solar panels do we need, to replace fossil and nuclear power?   

Find many citations at top loaded to defend fossil and nuclear dependency.

Find this from Cosmos Magazine:
Solar and wind will replace fossil fuels within 20 years 
Find this graphic:























Read 13000 TWh as the year-2028 Wind & PV passing of Fossil & nuclear consumption, at a time with total annual demand of about 32000 Twh. Read year-2018 Wind & PV, as 2500 TWh. See that this is not consistent with number 96.1 TWh for solar power. See that the year 2028 crossing is with PV and wind output up by times 13000/2500 = times-five. Times-five increase in ten years is obviously achievable. We struggle with big numbers that we don't understand. 

At 4/3/2019, find this by email feed from Climate Reality Project:




























Image: REN21, 2018, Renewables 2018 Global Status Report, REN21 Secretariat

USA capacity 10 2017, about 60 Gigawatts, in agreement with the Wikipedia listing above.


At 5/14/2019, consider actual progress in USA photovoltaic installations past 2016, dampened awfully by lost vision and resolve.
























The falling rate of installations must result from foolish channeling of effort to rooftop solar of individual homes, that depends on utility cooperation  and on unfair public subsidies. Needed rapid construction must be at utility scale, equally serving all customers.

The plot is deceptively heralded as achievement of two million strong  installations, whatever that means. See that the accelerating progress we need, would have added up already, to more than three million.



Find very many citations of two million strong, and authorship by SEIA. Here is the original news. The graph is from a study by Wood Mackenzie, and Wood Mackenzie forecasts that there will be 3 million installations in 2021 and 4 million in 2023, continuing the swift rise of solar.

This is an understatement of the possible, with clearly a negative rate of increase. Fallen enthusiasm links to the Trump era of lies and indifference. 

Here is more detail, from the SEIA report:

Today, the 2 million residential, commercial and utility-scale solar installations produce enough electricity each year to power more than 12 million American homes. By 2024, 2.5 percent of all U.S. homes will have a solar installation. The total amount of solar generating capacity that goes along with the 2 million solar installations has now eclipsed 70 gigawatts.

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