An optimistic "proved" total of 273 tcf would last eleven years at current pace, and the price would rise strongly, much sooner. Six years from now seems consistent with the chart.
Get to know Chris Nelder, who spoke the six-year fracked-gas number, in a radio interview that inspires this post. I listened to the interview again now for post diligence, and didn't hear the six number. It is there. Chris Nelder's analysis stands on its own, in this presentation:
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-take/peak-oil-isnt-dead-it-just-smells-that-way/
There, read this prediction of grave happenings in only a couple of years.
"I expect world oil production to rise, weakly, for another two years or so, as America falls into a deeper slumber believing that fracking has cured everything. The media will reinforce that belief. And when it comes, the wake-up call is going to be harsh. In the meantime we’re just going to be waiting for the punchline.
So to those who can grasp the data, here’s my final thought: How will you prepare yourself for The Great Contraction? You've got perhaps two good years left of business as usual, and maybe another three or four after that before things really get difficult. I encourage you to use them well, and do what you can to make yourself resilient and self-sufficient. What will you do 10 years from now if the price of gasoline is $10 a gallon?"
Here is another reference in this, author Richard Heinberg. His book is a really easy read, in Kindle. No one can contradict the truth that fuel prices misleading planners, will turn in the next several years. Planners of weatherization must act now, to accelerate action by more than an order of magnitude. In Portland, Oregon, those who brag of weatherizing 3,200 homes under fat-laden $20,000 HPwES scams, in five years, will face humiliation. The need in this period was of progress by times-fifty, in work done honestly, perhaps in sacrifice for our common cause.
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